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The
ACM
Long-term
simulations of the response of atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 to standard
emission scenarios have been carried out using the University of California,
Los Angeles (UCLA) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled
on-line with the UCLA atmospheric chemistry model. For both compounds,
photochemical loss rates are computed interactively over the entire model
domain at each time step of the integration. Using industrial-based emission
estimates, the simulations for CFC-12 closely track the long-term trends
recorded in both hemispheres by the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment/Global
Atmospheric Gases Experiment/Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment
(AGA) and Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory monitoring networks.
The agreement between simulations and observations is best when AGA-deduced
emissions are employed. The predicted surface missing rations of CFC-11,
on the other hand, are somewhat overestimated by the model. Because the
transport and loss processes, as well as some distributions, are roughly
similar for these halocarbons, the divergence in surface concentrations
points to the possibility that emissions of CFC-11 may be overestimated
for the period extending from late 1980s through the early 1990s, and
perhaps even at earlier times. As for CFC-12, the best agreement is achieved
using AGA emissions. The simulated interhemispheric exchange time constant
for these CFCs is about 0.6 year. In the annual cycle, maximum transport
occurs from the Northern to Southern Hemisphere within the lowest atmospheric
layers during northern winter. Our best estimates of the annually averaged
mean global lifetimes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are about 55 and 100 years,
respectively. The simulations indicate that both the mean residence time
and interhemispheric exchange rate depend on the assumed model vertical
domain. For the mass balance analysis, when the upper boundary of the
AGCM is artificially fixed below ~35 km for CFC-11, or ~43 km for CFC-12,
there is a tendency for the timescales (lifetimes and interhemispheric
exchange times) to be overestimated. Comparisons between CFC distributions
and trends calculated using low and high spatial resolution show relatively
small differences in the present case. These results, especially regarding
CFC persistence and interhemispheric exchange, suggest that the present
model accurately represents the global dispersion of long-lived chemical
tracers. |
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