ESM

Milestone E

Baseline (Round 2) coupled AGCM/OGCM code implemented on CT testbed with performance and sealing at least comparable to that at the end of Round 2. Documented source code made publicly available via the Web.

AGCM HIGH RESOLUTION

(2.5 lon x 2.5 lat x 29 levels)

(seconds/simulated day)

-	T3E 600	T3E 900	SGI 0-3000 (LOMAX)
32	332	260	194
64	184	162	104
128	119	105	73.4
256	63	51	53.4
384	-	-	49.51
512	44	34	47.0 (490 nodes)

HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED AGCM/OGCM

AGCM: 2.5 lon x 2 lat x 29 levels

OGCM: 1/3 lon x 1/3 lat x 31 levels

Machine/Nodes	T3E 600	SGI 0-3000 (LOMAX)
256	198 (Atlantic)	72.56 (Pacific)

List of Risks and Risk Mitigation Strategies (December 2002)

Name	Description of Risk	Level of Impact (H, M, L)	Prob. of Impact (H, M, L)	Type of Mitigation (Avoid, Mitigate, Accept)	Mitigation Actions
PBL parameterization for AGCM	Timely availability of upgraded parameterization	M	L	Mitigate	A research scientist has been hired and assigned to this project. He will be joining UCLA on 1/2/2003. In the meantime, work continues with the curent model version.
El Niño simulation	Poor performance of AGCM coupled to MIT OGCM	M	H	Mitigate	The UCLA AGCM has been coupled to the MIT OGCM. The preliminary results are not satisfactory, as expected. Detailed diagnostic studies in the reasons for the poor performance have started. The amount of work required to fix this problem is difficult to predict.
HYPOP	Timely availability of HYPOP	M	L	Mitigate	HYPOP designers have been made aware of the need for timely availability of the model. Additional resources will be sought to enhance the ocean modeling component.
El Niño Prediction	Poor model simulation of the El Niño. If model simulation of ENSO is poor, then predictions of ENSO may be unreliable and science findings unreliable.	H	M	Mitigate	Significant improvements in the performance of the UCLA AGCM coupled to LANL POP have been achieved by revising/tuning model parameterizations. The current performance is adequate for proposed work on ENSO predictability. The results, however, can be further improved and more work is underway.
ESMF	Timely availability of ESMF interface	M	L	Mitigate	Milestone J depends on availability of ESMF. Work on the science goals of the project can continue with an ESM framework in which components are coupled using the DDB.
ESMF	Timely availability of ESMF interface specification for ESMF Core Development Team	H	H	Mitigate	Coordination with ESMF Core Developmetn Team is in progress.
Integration of ESM into ESMF	Modifications of ESM for coupling to ESMF	H	H	Mitigate	Strengthen exhange of information between ESMF developers and this project. It is too early for a better definition of this risk.