ENSO Multi-Level Regression Model

Model Verification

Nino-34 Regression Forecast

Comparison with CA Model


Last updated: 9/14/08

The current NINO-34 forecast of nonlinear model is based on data from January 1950 through August 2008, and predicts near neutral conditions for 2008/2009 winter. The error bars correspond to one standard deviation of the ensemble forecast. You can also check a plume of Nino-34 forecasts from different statistical and dynamical models (including our UCLA-TCD model) maintained by IRI.

References

Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, 
and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: 
Analyses of global sea-surface temperature 1856–1991. 
J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18 567–18 589.

Kravtsov S, Kondrashov D, Ghil M, 2005: 
Multilevel regression modeling of nonlinear processes: Derivation and applications to climatic variability. 
J. Climate, 18 (21): 4404-4424. 

Kondrashov D, Kravtsov S, Robertson AW and Ghil M., 2005: 
A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models .
J. Climate, 18 (21): 4425-4444.