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Last updated:
The NINO-34 ensemble forecast (600 members) of nonlinear model is based on data from January 1950 through December 2009 (blue), and ensemble mean (red) predicts return to climatolgy by summer 2010. The error bars (black) correspond to one standard deviation of the ensemble plume. You can also check a multi-model plume of Nino-34 forecasts from different statistical and dynamical models (including our UCLA-TCD model) maintained by IRI.
Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal,
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Kondrashov D, Kravtsov S, Robertson AW and Ghil M., 2005:
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J. Climate, 18 (21): 4425-4444.
