Nino-34 EMR Forecast

Last updated: 1/12/12

The NINO-34 ensemble forecast (300 members) of EMR model is based on data from January 1950 through December 2011 (blue), and ensemble mean (red) predicts La-Nina conditions in winter 2011/12. The error bars (black) correspond to one standard deviation of the ensemble plume. You can also check a multi-model plume of Nino-34 forecasts from different statistical and dynamical models (including our UCLA-TCD model) maintained by IRI, and compare predictions for the past 22 months; see the historical performance of the UCLA-TCD model here.

References

Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, 
and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: 
Analyses of global sea-surface temperature 1856–1991. 
J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18 567–18 589.

Kravtsov S, Kondrashov D, Ghil M, 2005: 
Multilevel regression modeling of nonlinear processes: Derivation and applications to climatic variability. 
J. Climate, 18 (21): 4404-4424. 

Kondrashov D, Kravtsov S, Robertson AW and Ghil M., 2005: 
A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models .
J. Climate, 18 (21): 4425-4444.