 |
|||||||||
|
|||||||||
|
|
|||||||||
|
|||||||||
|
|||||||||
|
|
|||||||||
Last updated:
The current NINO-34 forecast of nonlinear model is based on data from January 1950 through May 2009, and predicts return moderate warming by the end of 2009. The error bars correspond to one standard deviation of the ensemble forecast. You can also check a plume of Nino-34 forecasts from different statistical and dynamical models (including our UCLA-TCD model) maintained by IRI.
Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal,
and B. Rajagopalan, 1998:
Analyses of global sea-surface temperature 1856–1991.
J. Geophys. Res., 103, 18 567–18 589.
Kravtsov S, Kondrashov D, Ghil M, 2005:
Multilevel regression modeling of nonlinear processes: Derivation and applications to climatic variability.
J. Climate, 18 (21): 4404-4424.
Kondrashov D, Kravtsov S, Robertson AW and Ghil M., 2005:
A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models .
J. Climate, 18 (21): 4425-4444.
