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Last updated:
The NINO-34 ensemble forecast (600 members) of nonlinear model is based on data from January 1950 through October 2009 (blue), and ensemble mean (red) predicts moderate El-Nino peaking by the end of 2009. The error bars (black) correspond to one standard deviation of the ensemble plume. You can also check a multi-model plume of Nino-34 forecasts from different statistical and dynamical models (including our UCLA-TCD model) maintained by IRI.
Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal,
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Kondrashov D, Kravtsov S, Robertson AW and Ghil M., 2005:
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J. Climate, 18 (21): 4425-4444.
