J. David Neelin, Matthias Munnich, Hui Su, Joyce E. Meyerson,
and Christopher E. Holloway, 2006:
Proc. Nat. Acd. Sci., 103, 6110-6115.
·Paper (PDF 1.6 MB)
·Supporting Information (PDF 564 KB)
© Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences.
Abstract. Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multi-model ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest generation models analyzed here. Despite this, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here, and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local inter-model agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of inter-model agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.
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